AGI
2029.7
Consensus year
Range
2026-2040
Spread
±4.49y
Verified used
7
Total verified
7
Forecast Desk
Predictions Exchange
Live AGI/ASI prediction market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, plus a verified homegrown timeline ledger. Auto-refreshes every 25s.
AGI / ASI Markets
LIVEPrediction markets specifically about artificial general intelligence & superintelligence
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All AI Markets — Polymarket
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Markets scanned: 0 · AI/AGI/ASI matches: 0
Verified timeline consensus
Confidence-weighted consensus from verified quotes and references
ASI
2045.0
Consensus year
Range
2045-2045
Spread
±0.00y
Verified used
1
Total verified
1
| Forecaster | Target | Year | Quote | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dario Amodei Anthropic | AGI verified | 2026 quoted Oct 11, 2024 | Powerful AI could arrive as early as 2026. Mapped to AGI-equivalent capability threshold for this dashboard. | Machines of Loving Grace PAPER | 80% |
Elon Musk xAI | AGI verified | 2026 quoted Apr 9, 2024 | AI may exceed any single human by the end of next year. | CNBC interview INTERVIEW | 65% |
Elon Musk -- | AGI verified | 2026 quoted Mar 9, 2026 | we will have AGI this year | @Kalshi TWEET | 50% |
Ray Kurzweil Author / Futurist | AGI verified | 2029 quoted Jun 22, 2024 | He continues to project human-level AI around 2029. | The Guardian profile INTERVIEW | 70% |
Demis Hassabis Google DeepMind | AGI verified | 2030 quoted Jan 15, 2024 | AGI may be roughly five to ten years away. | CNBC interview INTERVIEW | 75% |
Geoffrey Hinton University of Toronto | AGI verified | 2033 quoted May 2, 2023 | Timeline concern centered on advanced AI risks inside 5-20 years. Converted from range midpoint for comparison use. | New York Times interview INTERVIEW | 60% |
Andrew Ng AI Fund / DeepLearning.AI | AGI verified | 2040 quoted Apr 24, 2024 | AGI is likely decades away, not imminent. | Vox interview INTERVIEW | 55% |
Ray Kurzweil Author / Futurist | ASI verified | 2045 quoted Jan 1, 2005 | The singularity is projected around 2045. | The Singularity Is Near BOOK | 80% |